No. 21 Tigers, Bulldogs feature potent offenses
NCAA Football Betting Lines
09/08/2010 -
STARKVILLE, Miss. (AP) -In one of the ugliest games in recent college football history, Auburn and Mississippi State punted, fumbled and stumbled their way to a 3-2 finish in 2008 that made both schools cringe.
Auburn won - on the scoreboard.
But really, there were no winners after a game that barely had more first downs (20) than punts (18). It was obvious both teams had serious issues.
Two years later, much has changed. Both programs have new coaches: Gene Chizik replaced Tommy Tuberville at Auburn while Dan Mullen took over for Sylvester Croom at Mississippi State.
Auburn left tackle Lee Ziemba, who was a sophomore during that 2008 game, joked that the final score looked more like soccer result from this summer's World Cup.
``It was a different time and place,'' Ziemba said. ``It's obviously not likely to happen again this week.''
Now 21st-ranked Auburn (1-0) and Mississippi State (1-0) have revamped offenses going into Thursday's Southeastern Conference opener for both schools at Scott Field.
The Tigers easily handled Arkansas State 52-26 in last week while the Bulldogs smashed Memphis 49-7.
Auburn's offense is led by quarterback Cameron Newton, a junior college transfer who was sensational during his first game. He accounted for 357 yards of total offense and five touchdowns against Arkansas State, living up to the hype that made him one of the most sought after recruits in the country.
But he's not the only player the Bulldogs will worry about.
Freshman Michael Dyer rushed for 95 yards and a touchdown against Arkansas State. Running backs Onterio McCalebb and Mario Fannin, along with receivers Darvin Adams and Terrell Zachery, were all important parts of the offense last season.
``A lot of people pick them as the sleeper pick to win the SEC West and you can see why,'' Mullen said. ``They're a talented team. When you have that type of experience it can go a long way. They have an explosive offense.''
But Mississippi State will counter with some talent of its own. The Bulldogs will play two quarterbacks - junior Chris Relf and freshman Tyler Russell - who were both very good in the season opener.
Relf is just as dangerous running as he is throwing, while Russell is more of a true pocket passer. Russell threw for 256 yards and tied a school record with four touchdown passes against Memphis.
The Bulldogs have plenty of playmakers around the quarterbacks as well. Receivers Chad Bumphis and Brandon Heavens each scored two touchdowns in the opener. They used four running backs - Vick Ballard, Robert Elliott, LaDarius Perkins and Adrian Marcus - extensively during the romp over Memphis.
Chizik said Mississippi State's confidence and execution is much better than a year ago, and Mullen's spread scheme will pose problems if his team isn't disciplined.
``It's not your conventional two-back, I-back conventional run-play stuff,'' Chizik said. ``It gives you a lot of problems. If you're not in the right spots or you have one guy out of position with their run game, it's going to give you some fits.''
Such offensive innovation was rare for both programs two seasons ago. But Ziemba said the Southeastern Conference has changed since then, and the wide open offense is necessary to compete.
``The past couple of years in the SEC, you've seen higher scoring games than you usually see,'' Ziemba said. ``The infrastructure has changed a little bit. People have gone into more spread-type offenses.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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Betting the NFL preseason
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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